Callin’ All Politicos: A Tough Pill To Swallow

On August 30th of last year, Yukio Hatoyama and his Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) were swept into power in a landmark election that saw dissatisfied Japanese voters turn out in droves to expel the former ruling Liberal Democrats (LDP) in favor of Hatoyama and his reformist pledges. Promising to build a “new Japan”, hopes and support for Hatoyama were high. The honeymoon was short and ended in brutal fashion.

Financial scandals, scandals within the DPJ leadership, failure to make good on an oral promise to move at least part of a relocating US military base off of Okinawa, and a growing perception that his leadership was “loopy” and indecisive finally torpedoed Hatoyama, a mere eight months after his landmark inauguration.

Since the administration of the wildly popular Junichiro Koizumi ended in 2006, Japan has welcomed a new prime minister every year: Shinzo Abe, Yasuo Fukuda, Taro Aso, Yukio Hatoyama, and now Naoto Kan. The roll call of failed leaders reads like a trivia answer but the national and international consequences of political gridlock to Japan are all too real.

Ties with the U.S., Japan’s closest ally, were strained over the Okinawa base problem and looming economic issues threaten to swamp Kan with both overseas and internal pressures just as the party he now leads fights to maintain its razor-thin majority in the July elections.

Known as a “realist”, Kan’s cabinet is already hinting that fully funding the promised childcare payments will be “difficult” and to avoid a Greek-style collapse Japan needs to reform its debt structure.

Both the DPJ and LDP have made policy goals to double the national consumption tax over the next few years. Despite public support for the tax raise, the bearer of bad news is seldom greeted with enthusiasm and the pressure will be on Kan not only to get results but also to emit a strong public presence. He has recent history to draw lessons from.

The long reign of Junichiro Koizumi fueled the public’s perception of what an effective leader should be. His fiery rhetoric, willingness to take chances, and direct appeals to the public earned him steady approval ratings. “Mr. Kan must show he has learned the Koizumi lesson,” said Kyoto University politics professor Satoshi Machidori.

The new Japanese prime minister needs to be as much a cheerleader as he is a doctor, administering the bitter medicine that Japan must swallow. Beyond leadership, this role demands personality and charisma. The test for Kan is to be the personality that Japan needs to feel comforted in these challenging times.